© Copyright Vladimir Kagan, March 11, 2011
Part two on the financial crisis
Forty guests at the Coudert Institute meeting receiving an earful of advice
Day two of our financial Seminar at the Coudert Institute was filled with cool information for those that still have money to invest (and Palm Beach has its share). The four Panelists gave us their diverse experience in staying above the fray in managing our assets.
In the “olden days” it was ideas that turned into wealth… today its money that begets money…
Fredrick Alger is a money manager and was the Chairman and chief Marketing Strategist at the firm that bears his name.
He said our fiscal troubles started in 1941 when most countries adopted the Bretton-Woods system, which set the exchange value for all currencies in terms of gold. However, many countries simply pegged the value of their currency to the dollar, thus making the dollar the defacto world currency. Gold was set at $35 per ounce.
The year 1970 was the crucial turning point. Under the Nixon administration, the costs of the Vietnam War increased and domestic spending accelerated inflation. The U.S. was running a balance of payments deficit and a trade deficit, the first in the 20th century. Because of foreign arbitrage of the U.S. dollar, it caused governmental gold coverage of the paper dollar to decline from 55% to 22%. Ever since the dollar has lost value. Back then, a dollar could buy 4 French Francs - 5 Swiss….. Today we get 70¢ (cents) against the Euro and 90¢ against the Swiss.
• The Euro has doubled since its inception in 1999
• Our basic commodities such as food and grain have doubled in the last eighteen months.
• Metals and textile doubled since 2009.
• Meanwhile China’s consumption of these products is up 20%
• We are paying 3-½% interest on our borrowed money – our debt stands at 15.5 Trillion today – in the next five years it will go to 20 Trillion… some say more.
• Interest payments will equal 50% of our Federal revenues.
• Our Debt to Revenue ratio has fallen behind Greece and Iceland (did I hear that correctly?)
• As deficits go up, it increases the Dollar Bubble… When it pops, it will be our children who must pay.
• We should not wait for our children to solve the problem… it is ours now.
Need I go on with statistics???? You, my savvy readers, probably already know them… for me, they were revelations.
The cure is simple: Cut military spending by 50%, BUT nobody wants to cut the Military; Not Congress, not the Generals, nor the purveyors of the hardware…. So let’s cut foreign aid, services and any other spending that won’t affect you or me. (Of course, no one wants to talk about raising taxes… you just can’t get elected on that platform…v.k.)
Back to where we should put our money, Mr. Alger pointed out that the Art Market is one of the only winners in this crisis. Paintings bought twenty, thirty years ago have increased 50 times their original purchase price when they resurfaced at auctions today…. Are you ready too buy contemporary ART? Other good investment opportunities: foreign currency, gold, silver, other metals, commodities.
Dog with Bird is a no-no - Ingre's Nude is passe - exchange for a Rauschenberg... it's money in the bank
......He left us with this tidbit: “Economics evolve – they do not recycle.”
Our next speaker was Robert Wiedemer the co-author of America’s Bubble Economy and Aftershock.
Regardless of opinion to the contrary… stimulus did help stem off disaster and is helping the recovery…. Mr. Wiedemer treated us to more statistics:
• A hundred years ago this country’s work force was 90% Farming… today it is 3%
• Demand for resources by Emerging Nations, not China alone has driven the bubble.
• Foreign exchange rates, (not skills) export jobs.
• Firing people does not solve productivity; it’s by increasing technology.
• Invest in Technology: Apple, not too long ago was selling at $3 today it’s up to $360…. This kind of inflated valuation is spearheading an eventual Stock Market bubble.
Bernard Picchi is managing director of Private Wealth Management at Palisade Capital Management, L.L.C. and a former Wall Street energy analyst.
He dove straight into that black sticky stuff called OIL…”heavy and sweet”… Mid-East Oil, Libyan Oil, shale Oil from Canada, Oil exploration here and elsewhere, friendly Oil in Brazil, less friendly Oil in Venezuela, China and India’s insatiable need for Oil. (He personally is all in favor of alternative energy but that’s not where he is investing).
• Wind and solar amount to less than 1% of present production and when in high gear may produce 2%.
• Quality matters - therefore the source matters. Saudi Oil is heavy and needs a lot of expensive refining – Libyan oil is ‘Sweet” and ideal for gasoline…BUT what’s happening in that country affects gas prices as today. (Gas in Palm Beach has jumped 50 cents per gallon in a week).
• Natural gas a nice bi-product, but hard to transport and not easily used in your car.
• A final statistic: Third World oil demands exceed that of the developed nations!
Bruce Helander, a former Worth Avenue Art Dealer is founder and editor-in-chief of the Art Economist Magazine.
His presentation was a sleeper. Did you know that Modern Art has appreciated 260% since the recession? He wasn’t talking about “the bird in a dog’s mouth” pastiche or the buxom nudes reclining by a woodland pool that we all love. NO he meant the jarring stuff of 20th century art: Andy Warhol, whom he considers the father genius of all Pop Art… Remove the comfort art from your walls and start hanging the Rothkos, and all the other stuff you can’t figure out the artist’s message. (There aint no message… it’s converting your money into his or her pocket and everyone gets richer.)
My son, Illya Kagan painting in Palm Beach - Two Nantucket scenes painted "en plein air"... Even his painting have increased in value ten fold since he started painting twenty years ago. (my advice: buy Illya's paintings... good for our family!)
Illya Kagan, is a “plein air painter” who creates beautiful impressionistic images of Nantucket landscapes, Miami lifeguard shacks, Aspen snow scenes and St. Barths' colorful boats and quaint streets. As a living artist, He will probably never get very rich doing this, but he loves what he does… He says value is all in the eyes of the beholder… it’s basic worth is just the canvas or paper it is created on… everything else is perception. Taking this a step further, he illustrates that our money is the same thing: take a dollar bill and a hundred dollar bill… it is printed on the same paper, uses the same ink, is the same size, looks alike… but we accept the value because we have faith in the government that printed it….This is called fiduciary money. The same is true of an Illya Kagan or a Robert Rauschenberg painting or a Vladimir Kagan sofa. The value of all these things hold firm as long as the supply does not out-stip the demand. The Picasso Estate assiduously protects its value by withholding thousands of images from the open market. The same holds true of our dollar as long as the government doesn't print too much, the value is protected... if they do, we have inflation.
Illya Kagan's simple reflections on the value of art... "It's all in the eye's of the beholder"
William Cathers moderates The Aspen Institute and works with inner-city High Schools to enlighten and motivate the students
He is a philosopher, an entertainer, a song and dance man, a teacher. He regaled us like an old-fashioned Baptist preacher, stirring up a frenzy with his Sunday sermon: “Animal Spirits’ From Fear to Confidence”
Cathers’ multimedia presentation examined the ideas and music born in the 1930’s depression and its impact on the “animal spirits” of the American public during this country’s darkest times…. He intertwine the life and philosophic writings of Ludwig van Beethoven, who suffered terrible depravity as a child and early in his 20s became deaf… to illustrate his struggle with life Cathers played an excerpt from Beethoven 5th symphony… animating the music with a boxing bout!... In a flash, Cathers brought us up to speed with Lois Armstrong’s struggle to escape an impoverished youth through his music…. Count Basie, already the king of jazz, traveling through the south, entertaining in Hotels he couldn’t stay in (sleeping on the train between performances). Cathers kept our spirits dancing in the aisles and wanting more…. He is a great fan of Keynesian optimism; his message was clear:
• In the worst of times, there is always hope.
• Man’s spirit can rise above despair.
• Out of adversity comes man’s ability to rise above the fray – survive and move ever upwards.
A good revival meeting in these tough times!
For information on the Coudert institute go to
www.coudertinstitute.com
To see more Illya Kagan paintings go to www.illyakagan.com